Unknown room (?) odds
What a question-mark room can turn into, and how the odds shift every time.
A question-mark room starts every act with a 10% chance of a normal fight, 2% treasure, 3% shop and 85% event.
Each time a type is not rolled it gains its base value again (fight +10, treasure +2, shop +3 points) and rolling a type sends it back to base, so after six events in a row the seventh ? cannot be an event at all.
Fight
10%+10 per miss
Treasure
2%+2 per miss
Shop
3%+3 per miss
Event
85%whatever is left
The roll, step by step
Fight 10%
Elite never
Treasure 2%
Shop 3%
Event 85%- 1One numberThe game draws one number between 0 and 1.
- 2A fixed orderIt walks the types in a fixed order: fight, elite, treasure, shop. Each allowed type adds its current odds to a running total, and the first total the number falls under wins.
- 3Else an eventIf nothing is hit, the room is an event.
- 4Then the odds moveThe winning type resets to its base. Every other type that was allowed this time grows by its base again. A type that was blocked for this roll neither wins nor grows.
- Deadly EventsElite normally sits at "never" and never grows. This modifier sets it to 10% at run start, and doubles the treasure growth to 4 points.
- Shared. The four counters are shared by everyone in the run and saved with it.
- Reset each act. They reset to base whenever an act begins. A run that never enters a ? room carries the same 10 / 2 / 3 / 85 into every act.
Odds after N misses
Events in a row before this ?
Fight10%20%30%40%50%60%70%Treasure2%4%6%8%10%12%14%Shop3%6%9%12%15%18%21%Event85%70%55%40%25%10%0%A fresh act: the base odds.One event so far.Two events in a row.Three events in a row.Four events in a row.Five events in a row.Six events in a row: fight, treasure and shop add up to 100%, so an event is impossible until something resets.
- Each type on its own. The steps describe an unbroken streak of events. If the third ? is a fight, fight drops back to 10% while treasure and shop keep their 6% and 9%.
- The rule. A type's chance is its base times one plus the number of rolls since it last came up: fight 10, 20, 30; treasure 2, 4, 6; shop 3, 6, 9.
- The wall at seven. Once the three totals reach 100%, which happens on the seventh roll of an all-event streak, an event is impossible until something resets.
- Deadly Events. The elite chance starts at 10% and grows by 10 like fights, and treasure grows by 4.
All seven steps as a table
| Events in a row | Fight | Treasure | Shop | Event |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10% | 2% | 3% | 85% |
| 1 | 20% | 4% | 6% | 70% |
| 2 | 30% | 6% | 9% | 55% |
| 3 | 40% | 8% | 12% | 40% |
| 4 | 50% | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| 5 | 60% | 12% | 18% | 10% |
| 6 | 70% | 14% | 21% | 0% |
What can and cannot appear
A ? can become
- A normal fight
- A treasure room
- A shop
- An event
Never
- A rest site
- A boss
- An ancient
- An elite, unless Deadly Events is on
Juzu BraceletRemoves fights from the list.
Lantern KeyIn your deck, it makes every ? in the third act an event and steers the next event to War Historian, Repy.
Golden CompassDoes the same for the act it was picked up in.
- No shop after a shop. Shops are blocked when the room you just left was a shop, or when every node after this one is a shop.
- A real fight. A fight from a ? is the act's next normal encounter in its shuffled cycle. It pays the same gold, cards and potion roll as a marked fight.
- A real chest. A treasure ? is a real chest with its relic and 42 to 52 gold (31 to 39 with Poverty).
Your very first run
On a save with zero completed runs the first two ? rooms are always events and the third is always a fight.
- 1st ?Event
- 2nd ?Event
- 3rd ?Fight
- 4th ? onwardThe normal roll
- Off the books. The counters do not move for those three.
- Then the real thing. From the fourth ? onward the normal roll takes over, and every later run uses it from the start.
How many ? rooms an act has
Act 1Overgrowth10 to 14 ? rooms
6 or 7 rest sites
Act 1Underdocks10 to 14 ? rooms6 or 7 rest sites
Act 2Hive9 to 13 ? rooms6 or 7 rest sites
Act 3Glory9 to 13 ? rooms5 or 6 rest sites- A bell curve. Overgrowth and Underdocks place a bell-curve count of ? nodes centred on 12 and clamped to 10 to 14. The Hive and Glory place one fewer.
- The rest of the map. Each act also has 3 shops and 5 elites (8 with Swarming Elites). Overgrowth places 6 or 7 rest sites and Glory 5 or 6.
- The game's hover boxes for each outcome: Unknown enemy, event, merchant, treasure and elite.
Related
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